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QB Draft History

Drafting a Quarterback in round one of the NFL Draft is not an exact science, in fact, it’s a complete crapshoot. For every Patrick Mahomes, you get a Jameis Winston. If you haven’t already figured out that QB play in college doesn’t always translate to the NFL than you must have been living under a rock for the last 20 years. One of the best QB’s in college football history, Tim Tebow, didn’t have a prayer (no pun intended) in the NFL. While the pro game has changed over the years to make it easier for college QB’s to translate, year in and year out they are still not translating. Here’s a look at the good, the bad and the ugly from 2010-2019:

The Good (10)

Patrick Mahomes

Deshaun Watson

Josh Allen

Lamar Jackson

Ryan Tannehill

Baker Mayfield

Andrew Luck

Jared Goff

Cam Newton

Kyler Murray

The Bad (14)

Johnny Manziel

Blaine Gabbert

Tim Tebow

Brandon Weeden

Sam Darnold

Blake Bortles

Teddy Bridgewater

Robert Griffin III

Sam Bradford

Mitchell Trubisky

Marcus Mariota

Jameis Winston

Carson Wentz

Daniel Jones

The Ugly (6)

Paxton Lynch

Christian Ponder

Josh Rosen

EJ Manuel

Jake Locker

Dwayne Haskins

We’ve had twice as many busts as hits over the last twelve years. You basically have a 33% of hitting when you draft a QB in round one. You don’t even want me to go back to the 2000’s where you have the likes of Matt Leinart, JP Losman and Christian Ponder getting drafted high in round one. Scary part, the percentage gets worse in the following, later rounds. You’ll be lucky if you can get three legit QB’s out of each draft. You draft a QB in round one or at all quite frankly, you are most likely drafting a bust.

There are five QB’s projected to be drafted in round one this year. Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields, Trey Lance and Mac Jones. History indicate that only two of them will be successful NFL QB’s. If Trevor Lawrence and Zach Wilson go first and second overall, only one of them will be good. Look at the Manning-Leaf year or the Luck-RGIII year, only one ends up successful. Once you get past those two, you have Fields, Jones and Lance. Between those three only one is likely to be good. Lance has bust written all over him and honestly, flip a coin between Jones and Fields.

This is why it takes teams years and attempt after attempt to find their franchise QB. You can do all the work you want on these QB’s, watch all the film, watch all the workouts and practice drills, interview him, talk to former coaches. None of it matters, it’s a complete crapshoot, you just have to hope and pray that you are the one that hits on one of the three good QB’s that will come from this draft.

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