Stat Nerd Alert!
Coming to you live from the office today because TA's call out rose me out of the ashes and back to the blog life. Backstreet's back! Alright!!
(For your viewing and listening pleasure... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6M6samPEMpM&ab_channel=BackstreetBoysVEVO )
As the title states, this is for the stat nerds, a little bit. Not a mind-blowing in your face stat like fWAR, LIPS or anything like that. I'm looking at something as simple as run differential (RD). If you want to know who is going to have a SHOT at the World Series. The past five seasons was as far as I went back and each of the league champions were in the top five of run differential. That simple. Top five.
Top Five Run Differential (as of games played on 5/12/21)
1 Chi Sox +64.0
2 Houston +44.0
3 LA Dodgers +40.0
4 SF Giants +31.0
5 Toronto +30.0
Your Boston Red Sox are at the 6 spot with +29.0.
Less than a quarter of the way thru the season and they are within reach of being, at the very least, a contender for a World Series trip. Despite their successes early in the season I still don't think it holds up even though they are certainly on pace to be better than what Uncle Stevie projected. They have a chance to outdo my February 18th prediction of 84 wins but it will all boil down to RD.
Their offense with X and JD need to keep leading the way with the likes of Devers, Dugie and company bringing some noise to the table game in and game out, not all but one or two of them each night. The pitching has been better than I expected but, get this, it still isn't great. The only starting pitcher in the top 50 for ERA is Eddie Rodriguez and he's 50th. Of the teams with POSITIVE run differential, the Red Sox have allowed the second most runs at 162. That's pitching. That's going to continue to be the crutch that the offense is going to have to continue to carry if they want to have an opportunity in October.
Anyways.... what does all of the above mean for you, an avid fan or even an average fan, as the next few weeks play out? Don't worry so much about the wins and losses but instead try to keep an eye on the teams run differential as it certainly can temper your expectations if they start to go down the list or float close to the top five.
Hope this tickled your fancy Timbo Slice!!!